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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the award. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

Yet the latest competition is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime strugglers ascending together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's facing five other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still