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It was two months prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or the reason of the side's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?

This is a rather hard question to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, while the victories have accumulated.

According to the data, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, they seem strangely fragile – yet right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and again against United.

His opener originated from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents had more shots and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.

A Case for Belief

Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

• The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder now would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.

The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.