Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

The nation is holding an election in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been engaged on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".